The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced that it is producing over 45 million liters of petrol and 25 million liters of diesel daily, exceeding Nigeria’s estimated consumption of 50 million liters of petrol and 20–25 million liters of diesel.

The milestone comes as the country prepares to implement a 15% ad valorem import duty on fuel beginning November 21, a policy aimed at strengthening domestic refining and reducing reliance on imports.

The 650,000 barrels-per-day facility—Africa’s largest—has significantly ramped up operations following President Bola Tinubu’s October 21 approval of the tariff, which applies to the cost, insurance, and freight value of imported petrol and diesel.

Federal Inland Revenue Service Chairman Zacch Adedeji described the measure as aligning import costs with domestic realities, projecting an additional ₦99.72 per liter in landing charges and ₦1.92 billion in daily revenue. Despite the adjustment, retail prices remain below regional benchmarks, such as Senegal’s $1.76 per liter.

Dangote Group spokesperson Anthony Chiejina confirmed the output figures, emphasizing the refinery’s commitment to uninterrupted nationwide distribution. “Our refinery is currently loading over 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily, which exceeds Nigeria’s demand,” he stated, assuring that logistics partnerships are in place to ensure steady supply through the festive season.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has pledged to prioritize locally refined products in import licensing and conduct periodic tariff reviews as domestic capacity expands. NMDPRA Executive George Ene-Ita reiterated that pricing will remain market-driven, with no abrupt increases anticipated.

Industry reactions have been mixed. Hammed Fashola of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria welcomed the boost for local employment but cautioned against potential monopoly risks should output falter. Billy Gillis-Harry of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria described the development as a “win-win” for availability, while urging vigilance on affordability.

Energy analyst Olatide Jeremiah estimated a ₦100 per liter markup due to the tariff, commending its support for the naira but warning of supply vulnerabilities in a country still importing 69% of its fuel, despite modular refinery efforts in Edo and Rivers states.

Since August 2024, the Dangote Refinery has supplied diesel and aviation fuel, easing import dependence following the removal of fuel subsidies. Under Sections 21 and 22 of the Petroleum Industry Act, import duties will be channeled to federal accounts for oversight.

As Nigeria navigates its energy transition, the refinery’s surplus signals progress toward self-sufficiency, though stakeholders continue to monitor implementation for equitable and sustainable outcomes.